Cel mai lent ritm din ianuarie, dar alimentele ridicate, prețurile chiriilor rămân „problematice”

Topline

Inflation grew at the slowest pace since January last month as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hikes tank sectors of the economy in an effort to cool demand and tame rising prices—a potentially promising sign for consumers as officials gauge when to hit the brakes on their aggressive tightening campaign.

Fapte-cheie

Consumer prices rose 7.7% on an annual basis—lower than the 7.9% spike economists were expecting after a reading of 8.2% in September.

Prices also fared better than expected on a month-to-month basis, climbing 0.4% from September versus economist projections of 0.6%, according to de date eliberat de Departamentul Muncii joi.

In emailed comments, First Citizens Bank economist Phillip Neuhart called the report “welcome news” but noted inflation “remains historically high,” adding the Fed will continue to tightening monetary policy “until it is clear inflation is in a persistent downtrend”; though annual inflation in October marked the smallest increase since January, the reading is still nearly four times the Fed’s historical target of 2%.

“If this constitutes improvement, we’ve set a very low bar,” says Bankrate chief financial analyst Greg McBride, adding the “pervasiveness” of price increases “remains problematic” and pointing out goods and services consumers need—namely shelter, food and energy—”are still seeing large and consistent increases.”

While prices for used cars, apparel and airplane tickets fell last month, shelter (or rent) prices contributed more than half of the overall inflation spike, as gas and food prices also climbed, the government said.

Citat crucial

“Inflation has run far hotter for far longer than expected and we have yet to string together any kind of winning streak,” says McBride. “With additional reports on inflation… in the coming days, and another CPI report before the December Fed meeting, there is plenty of opportunity for further disappointment.”

Fundalul cheie

Fed a început să majoreze dobânzile, deoarece inflația a atins un maxim din ultimii 40 de ani în martie, dar așteptările cu privire la ritmul și intensitatea creșterilor dobânzilor au devenit mai agresive pe fondul creșterilor încăpățânate ale prețurilor și a criticilor adresate de banca centrală. așteptă too long to start the hikes. The increases, which work to slow inflation by tempering consumer demand, have already tanked the housing and stock markets: The S&P is down 22% this year, and existing home sales have plummeted more than 20%. However, the piața forței de muncă și profiturile corporative have remained largely resilient—justifying the Fed’s aggressive policy to combat inflation despite pockets of the economy already struggling.

Ce să urmăriți

The Fed has just one more policy meeting this year, concluding on December 5. Even though Fed Chair Powell laid out a case for slowing the pace of tightening after the last increase in July, policymakers changed their tune after the CPI reports for August and September both rose more sharply than expected, suggesting the central bank has more work to do before taming rising prices. Goldman Sachs projects the central bank will hike to a top rate of 5% next year—eclipsing the 4.9% projection the Fed eliberat în septembrie și mult mai mare decât previziunile sale din decembrie care cer o rată maximă de 3.1%.

Lecturi suplimentare

Piața locurilor de muncă „foarte puternică”, dar dă semne de „distrugere”: iată cum creșterile Fed au schimbat angajarea (Forbes)

Președintele Fed Jerome Powell – bântuit de fantoma lui Paul Volcker – ar putea reduce economia (Forbes)