Piața ursă se profilează pe măsură ce „vânzarea necruțătoare” bate acțiunile – nici măcar o inflație mai scăzută nu poate ajuta acum

Topline

As the market struggles to brush off some of its worst losses in more than a year, a growing number of experts are warning more stocks could tumble into bear market territory as the Federal Reserve unwinds its pandemic-era economic support—even if inflation subsides more quickly than expected.

Fapte-cheie

While major stock market indexes plunged as much as 2% Tuesday, analyst Tom Essaye of The Sevens Report warned clients he remains “cautious” on the S&P 500 as stocks struggle to stabilize, pointing to “relentless selling” on Friday as a potential predecessor to a sharp downturn of as much as 5%.

In a Monday note, Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson said the Friday plunge, which saw the Dow tumble nearly 1,000 points for its cea mai rea zi since October 2020, indicates the market is moving to a “much broader sell-off phase,” during which stocks in typically resilient industries—such as consumer staples—fall.

“The S&P appears ready to join the ongoing bear market,” Wilson said, cautioning that materials and energy stocks—two of the year’s top-performing sectors—have started to post “eye-popping” losses, while defensive stocks (such as in consumer staples) have gotten “expensive” relative to earnings.

In another potentially bearish sign for stocks, the analyst said inflation has likely peaked after reaching a 40-an de mare last month, thereby taking some pressure off the Federal Reserve as it hikes interest rates, but also meaning lower sales and earnings growth for companies benefiting from the price hikes.

For many companies, it “could be painful” if inflation declines swiftly and sharply, particularly in the materials and energy sectors, which have benefited from rising commodity prices, Wilson says, adding: “Be careful what you wish for.”

Despite tighter Fed policy and slowed earnings growth, Wilson believes large-cap pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks—such as Merck and Eli Lilly—should persevere, helping to drive the S&P’s performance higher, thanks in part to relative low valuations and stable dividend yields.

Citat crucial

“Inflation is peaking but that’s not bullish because it means [profit] margins and [earnings] have peaked too,” Wilson said Monday. “The market has been so picked over at this point, it’s not clear where the next rotation lies. In our experience, when that happens, it usually means the [S&P] is about to fall sharply, with almost all stocks falling in unison.”

Fundalul cheie

Redeschiderea economiei, stimulentele fiscale și ratele dobânzilor scăzute din punct de vedere istoric au ajutat să alimenteze unul dintre cele mai puternice porniri vreodată pe piața taurească în timpul pandemiei, dar acțiunile s-au luptat în acest an, pe măsură ce Fed-ul majorează ratele și anulează sprijinul economic pentru a ușura. zeci de ani inflation. Meanwhile,Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has only tacked on to the uncertainty. After rising 27% in 2021, the S&P has fallen 12% this year, while the Nasdaq has hit bear-market territory, plummeting 20%. “When the market is grappling with too many things at one time, it’s generally a headwind, meaning the more managers have to discount too many issues, the more they have to lighten up on risk,” RTM Capital Advisors’ Mark Ritchie II a spus Real Vision on Monday, adding that he’s particularly worried of a “secular bear market” in which stocks struggle for years.

Contra

Since 1955, the S&P typically performs well in the nine months after the Fed first hikes interest rates, before performance begins to moderate, Ally analyst Brian Overby said in a Tuesday note. “Thinking longer term, remember that over the last four decades, the S&P produced positive returns through six tightening periods,” he adds.

Lecturi suplimentare

Dow a aruncat aproape 1,000 de puncte în vânzările de la sfârșitul săptămânii „brutale și urâte”, stimulate de Hawkish Fed (Forbes)

Acest indicator de recesiune clipește semne de avertizare, deoarece alimentația, războiul și petrolul amenință redresarea economică (Forbes)